A Totally Original Concept: NFL Predictions!

It’s been a quiet month since the trading deadline here. Largely, that’s because the Red Sox’ ship has continued to slowly sink due to injuries and the problems that were blindly obvious at the start of the season yet never, ever got fixed. As the playoffs became less and less of a possibility, my enthusiasm for pointing out why that was happening waned. The Red Sox now sit ten games out of the AL East and seven and a half out of the Wild Card, so the only real drama left for them this year is whether or not management will decide to continue the ridiculous “sellout streak.”

I’ll be back with another “How to fix the Red Sox” post (because my last one resulted in such a good season) after the misery is officially over, but in the meantime: Football! Labor Day is upon us, and with the season opening just a scant three days from now, it’s time for me to lay out my predictions for the 2010 NFL season, and in the process prove how little I actually know about teams that are not my own.

AFC East
Patriots
Jets (WC)
Dolphins
Bills

Losing Ty Warren for the season hurts what was already a troubling defense, but I think that Brandon Spikes will serve as a wonderful complement to Jerod Mayo and in the end there will be just enough talent there for the offense to carry the way. Brady’s got a few new toys to play with this year (tight ends in particular), and the concept of a healthy Welker and a more effective Edelman on the field at the same time is, frankly, drool-worthy. As for the rest of the division, I think the Jets will take a small step back this season, while the Dolphins will struggle to find an identity in a league that has largely figured out how to at least contain the Wildcat. The Bills, as always, are the Bills.

AFC NORTH
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns

If Roethlisberger was going to be active for the entire season, I’d probably give the division to Pittsburgh here. As it is, though, they’re going to be playing four games without him, and then they’ll have to deal with the inevitable rust that comes from picking up a season in midstream. Realistically, they won’t really get into the swing of things until after Week 6, at which point they could well be 2-4, or worse. Thus, I’ll throw my prediction to the Ravens, though I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bengals take it; for some reason, I’m fully on board with the “TOcho” experiment. I think it’s gonna work. (Please don’t bring this quote back up if they wind up killing each other.)

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis
Tennessee (WC)
Jacksonville
Houston

Top to bottom, the AFC South is the toughest division in the conference. The Colts are the Colts, and that’s all that I really need to say about them. The Titans are much better than the way they started last season, and neither Jacksonville nor Houston is by any means a bad team. That said, they both have the misfortune of being trapped behind two better teams–even if Vince Young will always be a better QB in Madden than he is in real life.

AFC WEST
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City

It definitely wouldn’t shock me to see the Raiders finish second, here; just adding a semi-competent QB in Jason Campbell makes them much more dangerous than they’ve been the past few years. On the other hand, just on the off chance that there actually is a season next year, I want the Patriots to get as much as they can out of the trade of Richard Seymour. I don’t see the Raiders, or anyone else in this division, having a real chance to knock off the Chargers, though; the Broncos’ hot start last year was basically a mirage, and the Chiefs are just plain not that good, at anything.

NFC EAST
Dallas
New York (WC)
Washington
Philadelphia

If the Eagles had retained McNabb, I would have had them in third and taking the second Wild Card spot. I don’t at all buy into the logic that he was the one holding them back, and I think the Philly fans and media will figure that out pretty quickly. Even with Donovan, though, the Skins won’t be good enough to get past the Cowboys or Giants and into the NFC playoff picture.

NFC NORTH
Green Bay
Minnesota (WC)
Chicago
Detroit

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Brett Favre is going to have a good start to the regular season, wear down toward the end, then self-destruct in the playoffs while Joe Buck and Troy Aikman talk about how brave and selfless he is. The only good thing to come of the lockout will be that, for at least a year, we’ll be spared from all of his stupid drama. While the order doesn’t really look that much different from the recent status quo in the North, I think this division will surprise people with how good it is; Detroit, especially, is going to take a big leap forward. (I can already tell that I’m going to regret that come January.)

NFC SOUTH
New Orleans
Atlanta
Carolina
Tampa Bay

Possibly more than any other, this is a division of quarterbacks: Drew Brees is one of the best in the game, Matt Ryan is good but not great, Matt Moore is okay I guess and Josh Freeman is cover-your-eyes awful. Not coincidentally, I think the Saints will have a great year, the Falcons will be good but ultimately miss the playoffs, the Panthers will be inconsistent and ultimately irrelevant, and the Buccaneers will be out of it by Week 10.

NFC WEST
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis
Arizona

Continuing our theme of quarterback talk, this division is chock full of guys that I like even though most people don’t–or at least it was until the Cardinals dumped Matt Leinart. I don’t particularly know why I liked him (or why I like Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck or Sam Bradford, for that matter), but I did, and while going from Kurt Warner to Leinart was going to be a big dropoff, I think going from Warner to Derek Anderson is that much worse. The wheels are going to come off in Arizona this season, in a big way.

PLAYOFFS
AFC Championship: Chargers over Colts
NFC Championship: Packers over Saints
Super Bowl: Packers over Chargers

So, there you have it. I’m on the record now with my NFL picks, and because I’ve gone on the record there is absolutely no chance that this actually happens. If it does, though, you can be sure that I’ll be here to gloat. In the meantime, I figure I’ll check in at least every week with something football-related, be it a rundown of the week’s action or an analysis of the Patriots games or something else entirely.

Claim Carlos?

Carlos Beltran has had a fantastic career. After debuting with the Royals in 1998, he was traded to the Astros in 2004. There, he had one of the best postseasons in memory, putting up an OPS over 1.500 including hitting eight home runs in twelve games (he also stole six bases without being caught). That performance, as well as his sterling defensive reputation, earned him a seven-year, $119 million contract from the Mets in the 04-05 offseason.

It didn’t start off well for Carlos in New York; he put up just a .744 OPS in his first season in Queens. Since then, he’s gotten back to being one of the best hitters in the Metropolitans’ lineup, putting up a .286/.379/.531 line from 2006 through 2009. However, since returning from a series of knee injuries in 2010, his line stands at a meager .195/.300/.312 in 22 games. What’s more, the former defensive wizard is showing signs that he may have lost a step or two; after having a combined UZR of 25.9 from 2006 through 2008, Beltran rated at -3.4 in 2009, and is already at -2.3 this season. At that rate, over 150 games, Beltran would cost his team 48.4 runs; in other words, he’d have to hit like Miguel Cabrera has this year just to be a replacement-level player.

Given his disappointing offensive numbers since his return, his apparent decline on defense and the fact that he’s owed more than $5 million this year and $18.5 million for 2011, it’s not terribly surprising that this piece appeared in the New York Times. David Waldstein writes that the Mets would probably let Beltran go for nothing if a team was to claim him off waivers, letting Angel Pagan slot in as the new Mets’ center fielder. If the Mets do place Beltran on waivers (which they probably will cause damn near everybody gets put on waivers), and it’s true that they’d let him go for nothing just to dump his salary, then I hope the Red Sox put in a claim on him.

There’s no denying it: Beltran’s batting line in 2010 is ugly. However, I don’t think there’s any chance that it represents his true talent level. His batted ball profile is largely the same as it was in 2008 and 2009; he’s traded a few line drives and ground balls for fly balls, but it could very easily be random fluctuation. Despite hitting largely the same types of ball, his BABIP has fallen from .297 in 2008 and .352 last year to .222 in 90 2010 plate appearances. In addition, the extra fly balls that he’s hit aren’t leaving the yard at the rate that they did in the past; just 3.8% of Beltran’s outfield flies have gone for a home run, compared to 15.7% in 2008 and 10.8% in 2009.

To my eye, it’s much more likely that Beltran’s hitting woes aren’t because of his injury or because he looks “lost,” as Waldstein puts it. I think it’s just that he’s been unlucky in the small sample of at-bats he’s gotten since he came off the disabled list. As for his defense, UZR in such samples is essentially meaningless, but even if it’s true that he can’t really handle center field anymore, the Red Sox are playing Ryan Kalish in left right now. Kalish has a nice little .345/.375/.483 line, but that comes with a .409 BABIP. Given that he had an .832 OPS at AAA this year, I think I’ll be forgiven for not believing that he can maintain an .858 mark in the majors.

As for next season, the first answer is “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.” Beyond that, I think it’s likely that the Red Sox will be looking to move one of their outfielders this winter, Beltran or no Beltran. Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen out of favor for reasons somehow stupider than the reasons that he was in favor in the first place, while Mike Cameron has been hampered by abdominal injuries all season long and at 38 years old in 2011 may not be capable of a role beyond that of a righthanded bench bat or perhaps a right field platoon with JD Drew.

The bottom line is this: If the Red Sox still think they have a chance to make the postseason this year, or they don’t want to risk missing out on Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth this winter, Carlos Beltran provides an interesting option. Is he overpaid? Probably. But the Red Sox are a team that can afford to overpay, and getting him for nothing would certainly be more palatable than trading CAN’T MISS PROSPECTS for someone else.

If Carlos Beltran’s on waivers, I want the Red Sox to claim him.

Adrian Beltre: MVP?

Earlier today, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs posted an article wherein he said that Adrian Beltre should be a serious contender for the American League’s Most Valuable Player award. While my love for Beltre is well known, reading this made me do a doubletake. I know that Beltre has been the best player on the Red Sox this season, but could he really be one of the best in the league?

In reality, Beltre doesn’t have a great case to be the AL MVP. While he has already amassed 5 WAR on the season, he’s nearly a full win behind the AL WAR leader, Josh Hamilton. Furthermore, while Beltre’s batting line of .336/.374/.567 is certainly nothing to take lightly, it’s hard to argue that his stellar defense makes up for the difference between that line and Hamilton’s .362/.409/.636 season thus far.

While Beltre doesn’t have a great case to win the award, I think Cameron is right that he should be in the discussion. Of the four players Beltre trails in WAR (Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Justin Morneau and Carl Crawford), no team has faced a more perilous road to get to where they are than Beltre’s Red Sox. With bodies dropping left and right and management content to patch the holes with players like Eric Patterson and Kevin Cash, Beltre has been a model of health and consistent play. If it wasn’t for his efforts, the Red Sox wouldn’t have even the shred of hope that they have now.

That’s not the kind of talk you hear when you hear people talk about Adrian Beltre, though. He’s almost become something of a joke on the NESN telecasts; if Don and Jerry aren’t making fun of his distaste for having his head touched, they’re shouting “Look out! Here comes Beltre!” whenever he charges after a pop-up. I don’t know why this is the case; the only thing I can think of is that the network is trying not to get fans too attached to Adrian, knowing that he’s going to be leaving us for greener pastures come the winter. Still, it seems odd to me that, in a season where so much has gone wrong, the media in Boston is largely ignoring one of the few things that has gone right.

I don’t think Adrian Beltre deserves to be the MVP, but he does deserve to be in the conversation. It’s a shame that NESN won’t start talking about him.

MLB Trade Deadline 2010

This is either the best idea I’ve ever had, or the absolute worst. For the next six hours (and change, because there will certainly be news breaking after 4:00), I’ll be posting my thoughts and comments on the non-waiver trading deadline, reacting to every move (and most of the rumors) as it happens. I’ll be joined periodically by Space Ochoa from What’s on my Mind Grapes?, and we’ll probably have at least one big fight during the day about the value of prospects or whether or not the Red Sox should just give up and disband.

They probably shouldn’t, but we’ll see.

5:05: An hour’s passed since the deadline, so I think it’s safe to say that the major dealing is done. As the dust settles, let’s take a look at what the Red Sox did:

* Traded Ramon Ramirez for essentially nothing
* Traded essentially nothing for Jarrod Saltalamacchia
* …that’s it

While the Yankees and Rays were adding Kerry Wood and Chad Qualls and Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns, the Red Sox traded away their third-best reliever (which isn’t saying much, but still) and got a backup catcher who appears to be a shell of his former self.

To say that I’m underwhelmed would be an understatement.

What strikes me more is what the Sox DIDN’T do. They didn’t go out and get bullpen help. They didn’t go out and get an impact bat. And perhaps most strangely of all, they didn’t trade Mike Lowell. What are they going to do with him now? The thought of him sitting on the bench at the Majors and taking playing time and a roster spot away from Jed Lowrie is less than appealing, but that appears to be the only thing that the Sox can do. Having a worthless malcontent like Lowell sit on the bench and complain while the media does nothing but fellate him would be a fitting way to fritter away the last couple of months in this doomed, pathetic season.

4:38: Red Sox add Jarrod Saltalamacchia and get Daniel Turpen from Giants for Ramirez. RamRam has struggled this year, but has enough talent and track record that it’s ridiculous to give him up for a never-be-anything “prospect.”  As for Salty, he’s better than Kevin Cash.  And that’s it.

1. I loved the RamRam deal when we got him for Coco Crisp, but since coming to Boston he’s turned into a pumpkin in a big way. I wish we had added something of value in getting rid of him, but just being rid of him isn’t a bad thing.

2. Remember when Salty was a great catching prospect who we should have traded Buchholz for? Well, maybe he can recapture some of that potential while he’s sitting at AAA, cause we’re never replacing Kevin Cash with anything.

4:26: Daisuke Matsuzaka’s starting today for the Red Sox. In a related story, the Red Sox are losing already.

4:16: Will Ohman Miami-bound. He’s not a big pickup, but then, Rick VandenHurk isn’t much of a future asset, so I’m yawning.

4:14: Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth to Atlanta.  I didn’t think the Braves could have overpaid when the news broke, but Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez, and Tim Collins seems a pretty big package. Collins is still a bit off, but has enough upside that I’m not sure I’d have given him up for a package devoid of superstars.

This will add more fuel to the growing “Dayton Moore is secretly a good GM” fire. That’s a strange, confusing fire. Then again, he knows how to build a farm system, which is more than can be said for SOME AL GMs who aren’t going to the playoffs…

4:12: STOP THE PRESSES. HOLD EVERYTHING. RED SOX MAKE A TRADE.

Ramon Ramirez to the Giants.

4:06: Add OF Andrew Lambo to the bland haul for Dotel. Dodgers join Yankees as big deadline winners.  Losers: Cubs, Red Sox, and basically anyone who isn’t a New Yorker. Diamondbacks’ lousy haul for Haren mitigated a bit by the return for Jackson and inclusion of Carrasco in the dump of Snyder’s money.  I have to imagine that White Sox fans are a bit let down, considering the team’s failure to get that rumored big bat and the fact that Mark Kotsay remains their DH.

4:06: The deadline itself is passed, but surely there will be news of trades that somehow just got in before the deadline. It is so very hard to care.

3:59: Dodgers make another nice pickup, adding Octavio Dotel to a questionable bullpen on the strength of James McDonald’s reputation as a prospect from a few years back.  These days, he’s a middling reliever or weak back-end starter.

3:56: The hot Red Sox rumor: just-hit-by-a-ball-and-left-field Ramon Ramirez coveted by Mets. I have no idea what Boston could get back, but at this point, it’s obvious they don’t really care about anything but shuffling the pieces.

3:54: Maybe I spoke just a touch too soon. Apparently the Red Sox are in talks with the Braves on a deal that would send Jacoby Ellsbury to Atlanta. If this is real, then Kalish suddenly makes a lot more sense; of course, the stupid fans will hate it almost as much as if we actually traded Lowell.

I don’t see this happening, both due to the time as far as Ellsbury’s recovery and how the teams match up. Atlanta could afford to send a reliever to Boston, but it would take a lot more to make the Red Sox give up Ellsbury. The only way it would make sense, in my mind, would be if a third team were roped into talks.

3:48: The Red Sox front office is so pathetic that we haven’t even traded Mike Lowell yet. Fuck this deadline.

3:40: Heidi Watney, of all people, breaks the news that Jeremy Hermida was designated for assignment. That explains the need for an outfielder, but not why we brought up Kalish over Nava or Reddick.

“Designated for assignment” usually means “gone,” but I’m betting this is the sort of optional assignment move that has been seen a few times this year and only results in the player being optioned a few days later.  That’s fine by me – Hermida has yet to establish his value to the Red Sox, but while the year seems over, there’s no reason to keep losing games with superior hitting at AAA.

Which is why Kevin Cash is our backup catcher, right?

3:38: Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Mariners have approached the Braves about a possible trade that would send Chone Figgins to Atlanta. This I don’t get; Figgins’ value has to be at rock bottom right now, and to my mind the M’s would be better-served by just hanging onto him, moving him back to third next year and seeing what happens. Then again, the best deal today was made by Ned Coletti, so maybe we’re just living in Bizarro World.

3:28: Buster says that the Yankees are close to acquiring Kerry Wood, with the Indians sending them money to cover some of the salary. Look, I know that he’s had a bad year and that he’s dealt with injuries and is most likely just a bad pitcher, but he only costs money (and not much money, at that) and has a track record of success in the past. If the Red Sox were serious about contending this year, they would have been in on guys like Wood and Qualls when it became obvious that the bullpen needed help. Instead they pay lip service to the idea of contention by bringing up Bowden and moving Doubront to the pen. This season sucks.

I’m frustrated that the Red Sox don’t care about 2010 considering how strong they were in spite of injuries, but the fact that they could use Kerry Wood says more about their bullpen than Wood.  And by that same measure, Doubront and Bowden are the same kind of de facto upgrade as Wood would be (considering that both pitchers’ results should be assumed to improve as they move into roles that don’t demand they pace themselves or face opposing hitters more than once a game).  Qualls is a bit of a missed opportunity, but neither pitcher is so good that, given the volatility of relievers, I’d be confident saying he’d be a substantial improvement. Of course, any time an Indian goes to the Yankees, I just assume he’ll turn things around in a matter of minutes.

2:58: Via Twitter, Nick Cafado “hearing ryan kalish maybe dustin richardson on the way to boston.” Richardson makes sense to replace an injured-in-BP Ramon Ramirez, but what’s up with Kalish? With Mike Lowell due back, he can’t just be insurance 1B/bench bat. Probably nothing considering this year, but makes me wonder if the team has managed to pawn off one of its myriad mediocrities in the outfield.  More likely Cameron or Drew heading back to the DL, but this also doesn’t explain why the team’s skipping Nava or Reddick, the usual fill-ins in such a scenario. “It’s not just bad or good or stupid or cheap, it isn’t adding up” is the mantra of the 2010 Red Sox.

It’s worth noting that Nick Cafardo also tweeted that the Berkman deal “wasn’t close” after Rotoworld had already posted its analysis and everyone was calling the deal done, so…yeah.

Something is up. The “something” being “Cafardo dead wrong on Kalish coming up” makes as much, or more, sense as anything else.

2:51: Jayson Stark says that the Rays are out on Brandon League, and that they’re probably done for the day. They’re 6.5 games ahead of us and have gotten better today; we’ve done fuck-all. I hate this deadline.

2:15: The Mystery Box contains Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit. And the Cubs are paying $2.5 million. I don’t think I’ve ever said this, but… what a fantastic steal of a deal for Ned Colletti. (Did the Red Sox and Dodgers quietly swap GMs or something?)

Nah. If they did then the “Manny for the privilege of not having a great hitter in your lineup” deal would have happened.

2:11: Lilly and Theriot for Blake DeWitt and Mystery Box. Unless Mystery Box is a superprospect, Ned somehow didn’t get robbed for a change.  What’s happening here?

1:52: Sounds like Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot are headed to the Dodgers.  If I don’t post anymore today, it’s because I’ve hurt myself laughing at what Ned Colletti gives up for a gritty infielder and a guy with a 3.69 ERA and a history of getting a dozen wins a year!

Or because nothing else interesting has happened. Although if that happens, I promised Twitter follower @rhudgins32 that I’d ask you about the new Pokemon games.

These days, my video game time is spent on the demo of Madden ’11. I get to choose between playing as the Colts and playing as the Jets. The latter’s a better challenge and makes me feel less dirty.

Did you play last year’s? I was geeking out about how amazing the whole thing looked, but I never got a copy. I’ve heard nasty rumors that ’11 is a step back.

Didn’t play last year’s, since I’ve only recently moved past 2005 in gaming technology. If this year’s is a step back, all the more reason I should spring for a cheaper copy of last year’s edition, then (as though I don’t already have more games than free time).  I’m not blown away by the graphics, audio, or interface.

1:47: Word from Tampa is that Grant Balfour will be out for the next four to six weeks, which only makes the Qualls trade better for them. Somewhere in Boston, Theo Epstein is going “Wait…if one of your players gets hurt, you can go get a replacement from ANOTHER TEAM?! … And he doesn’t even have to be shit?”

1:30: Felix Doubront is moving to the bullpen, with an eye towards coming up to the majors and helping the big league team. This isn’t a BAD move or anything, but I can’t help but think that it’s the only one the Red Sox will be making today. After spending so much money in the offseason to bring in Beltre and Cameron and Lackey, why are we suddenly refusing to go get useful players like Qualls and Snyder and Kelly Johnson?

I like the possibility of Doubront providing solid lefty relief, but this does all but confirm that the Sox will do nothing today but perhaps give Mike Lowell or Manny Delcarmen a chance of scenery. I don’t think they’d mess with a prospect’s development if they were in on a Joe Thatcher or a Sean Marshall, though I suppose it could be a bluff to get other teams talking again.  But the way this season has gone, I truly doubt that.

1:10: Jayson Stark says that the Red Sox want to move Manny Delcarmen, in a “change-of-scenery” deal for another reliever. I like Manny, but it’s the right thing to do; since a very strong 2008 season he’s seen his strikeouts go down and his walks go through the roof. Maybe a change of scenery would be good for him, but I can’t see him being an asset to the Red Sox going forward.

I, too, am a Delcarmen fan, but he hasn’t been the same since the second half of last season, and headed for arbitration, he may end up a non-tender candidate this winter. If the Sox can get anything of value for him right now, I’d be pleased, even though I wish him the best and would like to see him make the most of his fresh start elsewhere.

Remember when Peter Gammons said he was a closer of the future? (Then again, to be fair, “Remember when Peter Gammons said something stupid?” is one of the easiest memory tests there is.)

12:50: RHP Corey Kluber headed from San Diego to Cleveland. The former fourth-rounder has taken a big step forward this year, but lacks an impressive track record, and is getting old for a prospect. He might turn into a #4-5 type (or #2 on the Indians!), but the Padres seem to have gotten a nice bat at a very good price (the prospect bound for St. Louis, Nick Greenwood, is a minor league lotto ticket type).  Not yet discussed: the Cardinals’ end of this. If they think Jon Jay can keep his power going at a level far behind his minor league numbers, they’re not losing much.  I’m obviously skeptical of that, so it looks like a marginal downgrade in the outfield for a bit of rotation depth while Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny are shelved, and perhaps insurance so they can rest 24-year-old Jaime Garcia for a while.

12:40: Buster Olney wonders aloud why the Dodgers would want to hang onto Manny Ramirez. I, too, would like to know why a team that’s 4.5 games out of the Wild Card sees any value at all in a .900 OPS hitter.

Considering how much time Manny’s spending on the DL these days, I can see why they’d want to move him if they could get rid of the whole contract. If they’re eating half of the money because he can only play half-time, however, it’s a move designed to appease Joe Torre not wanting to deal with Manny anymore, not one to improve the on-field results.

12:35: With Ludwick to San Diego looking closer to happening, I have to revisit my prior disappointment and note that I was assuming Ludwick would replace one of the Padres’ current corner outfielders. But if he instead pushes them to center field and gets the batless Tony Gwynn Jr. out of a starting role, I’m suddenly a much bigger fan of this deal.

12:33: First and probably only time we’ll talk about the Red Sox today, and it’s discussing today’s lineup. Scutaro SS, Drew RF, Youk 1B, Ortiz DH, Martinez C, Beltre 3B, Hall 2B, Hermida LF, McDonald CF. I love having Drew in the two slot, but can someone explain to me why Hall’s getting any playing time over Lowrie?

12:20: Ken Rosenthal says the White Sox are still in on Manny. Having him instead of the dregs they’ve been playing at DH all year would be a major gamechanger in the Central. One thing I don’t get, though: The Dodgers are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, and just acquired a player to bolster their chances in Scott Podsednik. What incentive do they have to move Manny?

The “dregs” include Mark Kotsay.  Seriously?  Wow.  Your DH gets on at a .300 rate, and you’re in the race?  Wow.  And that’s with Omar Vizquel getting serious time at third base, no less.  That said, I agree with The Goog’s confusion about the Dodgers’ end of this. Unless they need to free up money for Ted Lilly, why not keep Manny and make Podsednik a very good, albeit expensive, fourth outfielder?

Podsednik’s making just $1.75 million total this year, and has a $100,000 buyout on his $2 million option for 2011. Even for the cash-strapped Dodgers, that doesn’t count as expensive.

To clarify, I meant that he’s an expensive guy on a per-win basis if he isn’t playing full time. In an absolute sense, no, that isn’t a contract that should inconvenience the team even in the slightest.

12:09: Via MLB Network, Joel Sherman has shot down the Padres’ involvement in the Ludwick/Westbrook three-way, which is now a real rumor.  I’m not sure Ludwick brings enough over the Padres’ internal options to be worth real prospects, so hopefully they’re really out.

12:07: Apparently the White Sox made a run at Manny Ramirez. Of course, this “run” consisted of asking the Dodgers to give them Manny and pay all but $1 million of his remaining salary. Who does Kenny Williams think he is; Brian Cashman?

11:56: Rumors that Westbrook deal might prove to be a 3-team affair.  With the Padres hot on Ryan Ludwick, I figured San Diego could be the third party, but I don’t really see where a 3-way trade, rather than a pair of two-way deals, would work for the Cardinals.

Could the Indians have thrown in a minor leaguer in whom the Padres have interest?

That’s possible, but I’d then wonder what kind of prospect Cleveland would be demanding in return.

11:35: Wouldn’t be a trading deadline without the Indians trading away a starting pitcher. Jake Westbrook looks to be heading out to St. Louis. No word on what the Cardinals are giving in return, but given Westbrook’s injury issues and 4.65 ERA, it’s probably not much. His peripherals are better than that (4.41 xFIP), though, and a move to the NL Central can only help. Plus, even though he’s already a groundballer, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Westbrook get back up to the groundball rates he put up four or five years ago. Dave Duncan has done miraculous things with pitchers who had much less raw talent than Westbrook.

11:20: Crickets chirping right now. Feels like there will definitely be more moves made today, but no news has come out in a while. Could be the calm before the storm.

10:34: Pirates send Bobby Crosby (hasn’t had an OBP above .300 since 2005) and Ryan Church (who was actually a good player until the Mets broke him) to the Diamondbacks for Snyder. I sincerely hope that the fans in Arizona turn against the team and stop coming out to watch them. They shouldn’t care any more than ownership does, and right now it looks like ownership only cares about cutting costs.

Space: Snyder’s contract is hefty for a backup catcher, so it makes sense that having waited this long, the Red Sox would pass on him and hope for something to happen in the winter.  But by that same token, what is a lower-revenue team like Pittsburgh doing here? Could it set up another deal later on? As far as Arizona having “fans” who would turn on the team, I lived in Phoenix for several years, and I don’t think most people attending games know what baseball is.

Re-edit: I hadn’t heard that D.J. Carrasco was also involved here.  While he’s not CLOSER OF THE FUTURE material, he’s a useful piece for a bullpen, and officially more than I would have expected to move for Snyder and his substantial, if not albatross-likely, contract.

10:07: A tweet from Buster Olney: “Heard this: The Yankees are not pursuing Ted Lilly. If the Cubs wanted to put him on a platter and give him away, that would change.” You mean like the Astros and Indians did with Berkman and Kearns?

10:00: Let’s kick things off with a rumor round-up, shall we?

* The Pirates are reportedly getting Chris Snyder from Arizona for basically nothing. This will quickly become a theme: Salary dump deals for good players made by teams with less money than the Red Sox. Snyder has a .352 OBP this year, and aside from last year (when he had a .237 BABIP) has consistently been right around league average with the bat, according to wRC+. That’s park- and league-adjusted, so it’s not as if Snyder is getting a boost from playing in hitter-friendly Arizona. He’s signed at a good rate through 2011, and even his 2012 option isn’t bad ($6.75 million with a $750,000 buyout). Assuming he doesn’t cost an arm and a leg, it’s a really good move for the Pirates–and one that the Red Sox should have made three weeks and 52 PA from Kevin Cash ago.

* The Diamondbacks reportedly offered Kelly Johnson to the Cubs for Ryan Theriot and James Russell. If that’s the case, and the Cubs don’t take it, Jim Hendry should be hanged. Johnson’s been worth 3.4 wins this year, which is 3.5 more than the sub-replacement Theriot. He’s making just $2.35 million this year, and is arbitration-eligible so would be under the Cubs’ control for 2011 as well. Chicago is basically out of the playoff race this year, but there’s no reason not to make this move and get better both now and for the immediate future.

* Paul Maholm is apparently a hot-ticket item, with the Dodgers, Padres and Mets all looking to acquire the Pirates’ lefthander. He’s been a 3 WAR guy the last two seasons, but has seen his walk rate rise every year since 2007 while his K rate has gone down since 2008. His 4.76 xFIP is the highest of his career, and he’s only getting more expesnive. He’s due to make $5.75 million next year, and has a club option worth $9.75 million for 2012 ($750,000 buyout). He’d probably be a solid back-end starter for a team with a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but he’s not exactly an impact arm.

* The Cubs turned down an offer from the Mets of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo for Carlos Zambrano. Good for Jim Hendry. Zambrano’s 4.24 xFIP this season is the best he’s had since 2006, and even though he’s due a lot more money he certainly has more left in the tank than Ollie. Can’t blame the Mets for trying, but at some point they have to just admit failure and cut him.

A quick rundown of the major deals that have already happened:

RANGERS GET: Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, $2.5 million
MARINERS GET: Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, Josh Lueke

Win-win deal. The Mariners acquired Lee in the hopes of making a run for the AL West this season, but when that didn’t happen they turned around and traded him to Texas for a better haul than what they gave up to get him in the first place. From the Rangers’ perspective, they gave up a very nice prospect in Smoak for just three months and change of Lee, but I’m of the opinion that flags fly forever and they did what needed to be done to put them in position to make a run at the World Series. Lee is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and that’s worth getting no matter what the price.

Space: I wouldn’t say “no matter what the price,” but while Smoak is very good, he’s not of such astonishing minor league numbers that I’d call him a can’t-miss prospect. Even if he were, Lee is good enough and the Rangers in enough need of an ace (come October) that it was a nice trade for them, and a good upgrade on what Seattle gave up for Lee. The Indians and Phillies, meanwhile, should be ashamed of themselves.

BLUE JAYS GET: Yunel Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes
BRAVES GET: Alex Gonzalez, Tim Collins, Tyler Pastornicky

Other than a really bad Simpsons joke (“The Lord be with you, everybody!” “And also with you, Pastor Nicky!”), the Braves don’t add anything with this trade. Alex Gonzalez is a terrible hitter with an overrated glove who even in his super-amazing breakout season (with a career-high HR/FB rate) couldn’t break a .300 OBP with the Blue Jays. On the other hand, Yunel Escobar is grumpy or something, so they had to make this trade. This doesn’t make the Braves better in 2010, 2011, or any other year, and it made me lose a lot of respect for them as an organization.

Space: The Braves are competent enough that I still like them in theory, but I can’t get over this trade’s utter stupidity and needlessness, and consequently hope that the Reds, Padres, or (unlikely but possible) Rockies can crush the dreams of Bobby Cox going out on top.  Ideally with Gonzalez striking out in a key situation.

ANGELS GET: Dan Haren
DIAMONDBACKS GET: Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, PTBNL (likely Tyler Skaggs)

Another trade that was obviously made for reasons other than making your team better. The Diamondbacks wanted to shed Haren’s salary, and they actually think Joe Saunders is a good pitcher (because of his win total. No, seriously.). Less than a year ago Arizona had one of the brightest front offices in the game; now, they’re trading their ace because he’s too expensive but adding a guy who’s going to arbitration where he’ll probably get a decent raise thanks to the stupid stats that they cited in acquiring him. Makes no freaking sense.

S: How does a team go from finding a guy like Kelly Johnson as a bargain deal to making moves like this? The change in GM obviously factors in a lot, but the fact that Byrnes was fired midseason makes me wonder how much power he had all along.

PHILLIES GET: Roy Oswalt, $11 million
ASTROS GET: JA Happ, Jonathan Villar, Anthony Gose (traded to Toronto for Brett Wallace)

Oh, Magoo. You’ve done it again, sir! Once again, baseball’s version of the world’s greatest blind detective has stumbled onto a good situation, largely through the acts of others overcoming his own incompetence. Ruben didn’t even outsmart Ed Wade on this one; it was largely the work of Drayton McLane, proving once again that executives should stay the Hell out of baseball matters. This isn’t as nice a deal for the Phillies as, say, keeping Cliff Lee and trading Joe Blanton would have been, but what’s done is done and the Phils should get credit for moving forward in the best way they can. Of course, if Oswalt’s added salary means they have to trade Jayson Werth after giving Ryan Howard that ridiculous extension…

S: Better yet, Werth walks as a free agent, and Raul Ibanez makes $11.5 million next year.

TWINS GET: Matt Capps, $500,000
NATIONALS GET: Wilson Ramos, Joe Testa

Bill Smith has caught a lot of flack for it, and his reasoning (which basically comes down to “SAVES!”) means that it’s pretty hard to defend him. However, I rather like this deal for the Twins. I’m a fan of Capps, and aside from last season (when his BABIP and HR/FB were at career highs and his LOB rate was at a career low) he’s proven himself to be a solid reliever, something the Twins needed badly (23rd in bullpen xFIP this season). His 3.53 xFIP this season makes him comfortably the best reliever on the team, and he’s under contract for 2011 as well.

Ramos is a highly touted catching prospect with a cannon for an arm, but at AAA this season he’s hitting just .241/.280/.345. Last season was the best of his career, putting up a .795 OPS at AA, but even then he only drew six walks in 214 PA. Ramos might develop into an alright catcher for the Nats, and if he does then they come out ahead in this trade. But if his bat doesn’t develop, he’ll never deserve regular playing time. The Twins turned a player who might be good into a player who IS good, and in my opinion that makes them winners.

S: There aren’t a lot of relievers I’d call “proven solid,” so it’s no criticism of Capps to say I’m underwhelmed.  Still, Ramos’ value is greatly overstated, and Minnesota should know his true potential better than anyone. Considering his value was inflated by being included in rumors for players like Cliff Lee, I have to wonder if it has been the Twins’ plan all along simply to move Ramos by the deadline for the best player they could.

YANKEES GET: Lance Berkman
ASTROS GET: Um…

Seriously, we have no idea what the Astros are getting here. They’re not getting top prospects back. They’re not getting salary relief, because they’re sending the Yankees money (They’re sending THE YANKEES money) to cover what’s left of Berkman’s contract. The Yankees added an impact player (one who may have begun to feel the effects of age but is still a very skilled hitter, particularly in that ballpark) for roughly the cost of the phone call Brian Cashman made to Ed Wade (or Drayton McLane, or whoever’s running things in Houston).

S: I hate the Yankees with rabid, unhealthy obsession, but this isn’t about them using their financial leverage. With the Astros eating so much of Berkman’s contract, it’s an absolute no-brainer that any team would (and could, financially speaking) take if offered.  The Astros have jumped to the top of the list of worst run teams in baseball with this inexplicable, inexcusable giveaway.

RAYS GET: Chad Qualls
DIAMONDBACKS GET: PTBNL

This isn’t an earth-shaking deal, but it’s still a very smart move for the Rays. Qualls has an 8.29 ERA this season, but that’s due in large part to a .434 BABIP, 14.3% HR/FB rate, and 51.4% LOB rate. All of these numbers are ridiculously out of whack with both sanity and Qualls’ career rates, and there’s nothing that tells me he shouldn’t be a good pitcher going forward. His 3.84 xFIP is the highest he’s had since 2006, but even given that he immediately becomes one of the better pitchers in the Rays’ pen. This is a good move for the Rays, and I can’t understand why the Red Sox weren’t willing to do the same thing.

Do Something

That’s all Theo Epstein has to do. Something. Anything. With the Red Sox having dropped to six and a half games out of the AL East and three games back of the Wild Card, it’s clear that the team on the field right now isn’t going to get them to the playoffs. The trading deadline is two weeks away, and major moves probably won’t happen before then, but a decision has to be made now about whether or not the Red Sox will be buyers or sellers come July 31.

The case for buying: Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz are both days away from returning. With them in the rotation, Doubront goes back to Pawtucket and one of the terrible relievers gets moved to make room for Wakefield (should be Matsuzaka, but I’ve given up on that battle). With Beckett and Buchholz back and healthy the rotation boasts three pretty darn good pitchers, one who might just be due for regression and one who could conceivably reconnect with the demon to whom he sold his soul in exchange for 2008. On top of that, Victor Martinez will be back sooner rather than later, meaning there will be at least one replacement-level catcher on the roster, an increase of more than 7,000% from the current status.

With all of these things taken care of, all we really need to do is fix the bullpen. Relievers are always a hot commodity come the trading deadline, but there are at least plenty to choose from: Kyle Farnsworth appears to be going through a career resurgence, Kerry Wood wouldn’t cost much but has looked pretty good in his last few outings, and there’s always the probability that Octavio Dotel will pack his bags again. Throw in a little luck from Patterson/Hall until Pedroia’s back, and we’ve got ourselves a playoff race!

The case for selling: There’s no guarantee that Beckett comes back and is immediately awesome. Given how poorly he pitched at the beginning of the year, that is especially questionable. There’s also no guarantee that Martinez and Pedroia are the same after their injuries, especially considering the fact that Pedroia seems hell-bent on breaking the record for fastest recovery time from a broken foot. Matsuzaka and Lackey are still shit, which goes nicely with the entire bullpen (except Bard).

Meanwhile, the Red Sox would have a few rather attractive trade chips, who could fetch a decent amount of prospects (and then be flipped for actually useful players in 2011). Adrian Beltre’s expiring contract and Type A free agent status would be a nice pickup for a team in need of help at the hot corner. And of course, there’s Jonathan Papelbon. Sure he’s been basically terrible this season and is only getting more expensive by the day, but he’s under control through 2011 and would instantly jump to the head of the available reliever class, at least in the eyes of dim-bulb GMs like Ruben Amaro and Ned Coletti. Don’t you think Bill Smith would love to have a PROVEN CLOSER like Papelbon on hand, rather than turning to Jon Rauch in the ninth inning? (We’re going to ignore the fact that Rauch has been a demonstrably better pitcher, here, because we’re thinking like Bill Smith.)

Of course, the Sox could always stay the course, do nothing and hope that players returning from injury provide all the spark the team needs to make a push for the playoffs. Given the position of the team right now, and the glaring holes that would remain even if everyone who’s hurt came back right now (Manny Delcarmen doesn’t exactly fix our bullpen, for example), this would be the most irritating option. Unfortunately, it also feels like it’s the most likely one. The fanbase would be mighty angry at the prospect of giving up on a season, yet also values its CAN’T MISS PROSPECTS too much to trade them for players of any value, so for all we know Kevin Cash could wind up being the biggest acquisition the Red Sox make at the trade deadline.

I hope, however, that that’s not the case. Whether it’s buy or sell, the Red Sox need to make a decision, and come July 31, they need to do SOMETHING.

Midseason Report Card

We’re just a little bit more than halfway through the 2010 campaign, and despite dropping guys faster than Ellen DeGeneres the Red Sox are right in the thick of things in the AL East. Let’s take a little more in-depth look at the team, shall we?

Record: 49-35 (Pythag: 48-36)
Scored 453 runs, allowed 385
Team OPS+: 114
Team ERA+: 103

Position players:

C – Victor Martinez: Started the year ice cold, both with the bat and his arm, but has come on very strongly since. After having a .632 OPS in April, he’s rebounded enough to get his line up to .289/.344/.480. He’s still struggling against righties (.642 OPS on the year), but overall I’m pleased with what we’ve gotten. He’s probably going to be gone at the end of the year, though, which makes me worry about the Sox’ longterm future at the position. Grade: B+

1B – Kevin Youkilis: He’s basically been 2001 Barry Bonds against lefthanded pitching this year. .367/.513/.833. Against righties, he’s “only” a .904 OPS guy, too. He’s got the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career, and he’s still a good defender at first base. I guess that’ll do. Grade: A+

2B – Dustin Pedroia: His slugging jumped back up this year after taking a little bit of a dip in 2009, making him even more valuable than he already was. He turns 27 in August, is a legitimate power hitter and awesome defender at second base, and is locked into a ridiculously team friendly contract through 2015. All of these make the fact that he broke his foot and we’re playing Eric Patterson and Bill Hall in his place hurt even more. Grade: A

SS – Marco Scutaro: Last year’s offensive surge was an outlier for him, and anyone who expected him to repeat those numbers for the Sox has to be disappointed. Personally, I wasn’t expecting him to do that anyway, and his .279/.345/.377 line is more than fine from a guy with his good glove. He’s been what I expected, but nothing more. Grade: B

3B – Adrian Beltre: I kinda wish he walked more, and it would be nice if other guys on the team learned to get out of his way when the ball’s coming. Everything else has been Godliness on top of perfection on top of masterful. Even if his BABIP regresses (and at .372, it probably will), he’s still one of the best third basemen in the game. And on top of everything else, he’s not Mike Lowell. Grade: Marry me

LF – Jacoby Ellsbury: He’s played nine games. He’s apparently disappeared for weeks at a time. The stupid fans are starting to turn on him, which is nice because the stupid fans loved him way too much. He’ll probably come back eventually, which would be nice cause everyone who’s tried to replace him sucks. Grade: I

CF – Mike Cameron: He’s been hurt, too, which is why I want to give him a pass, but he’s been terrible this year. Batting line of .255/.311/.345, and the abdominal tear has robbed him of a lot of range. The sample’s tiny, and hopefully useless, but UZR has him at -7 runs this year, or -37.6 per 150. Yikes. Grade: D-

RF – JD Drew: After being incredibly great the last two years, he’s only been pretty good in 2010. He’s gotten hotter with every month, though, so hopefully the best is yet to come from him this year. He’s also providing excellent right field defense once again, and gets some bonus points for being the only healthy starting outfielder we have. Grade: B+

DH – David Ortiz: Last year, after he started off disgustingly bad, he heated up enough to have an okay overall season. This year, he started off disgustingly bad (again), and has heated up enough to be an All-Star. I don’t know why he can’t hit in the first month of the year, but if he keeps hitting like this the rest of the way I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him back for 2011 or beyond. Grade: B+

Bench:

Jason Varitek: Hitting very well in limited playing time, broke his foot when the playing time looked to be less limited. I’m knocking him down a grade because his timing is fucking horrible. Grade: B-

Mike Lowell: Can’t hit. Can’t run. Can’t field. Can’t stay healthy. Can’t get surgery on things that need surgery, so he can’t get traded to teams that can’t tell that he can’t do anything. Fuck him. Grade: F

Bill Hall: He’s been pretty bad, but not as terrible as he could have been. Playing way too much, but at this point there’s nobody better. Grade: C

Darnell McDonald: Same story as Hall, really. He’s crap, but he’s playing over his head and it’s not like we have the bodies to get anyone better out there. Grade: C+

The rest: Nava, Reddick, Hermida, Sanchez, Romero, and anyone else I’ve missed. They’re all various degrees of bad, and none of them have played enough to stand out. Some, like Nava, have played over their head in a small sample, but they’ll regress soon enough. Grade: C

Kevin Cash and Gustavo Molina:

Starting rotation:

Josh Beckett: Pitched poorly, then got hurt. Going out on a rehab assignment soon, and will hopefully not pitch so poorly. Grade: I

Jon Lester: With Beckett hurt and everyone else being mediocre or worse, Lester has stepped up and been the ace that we desperately need. There can’t be enough great things said about this man. Grade: A+

John Lackey: After signing a contract that only made sense if he was exactly as good as he had been in Anaheim, Lackey has completely fallen the fuck apart. He’s striking out fewer batters and walking more than he ever has, and he’s signed through 2014. He is the anti-Beltre. Grade: F

Daisuke Matsuzaka: He’s doing the same “Walk everybody and hope BABIP and HR/FB break my way” bullshit that he did in 2008, and the results aren’t breaking his way that much. Watching him pitch is like Chinese water torture with a kick in the balls thrown in at random intervals. Grade: F

Tim Wakefield: He got unfairly put in the bullpen when Dice got healthy, then went right back into the rotation when Beckett got hurt. He’s responded by being the same guy he’s always been: Brilliant or terrible with a knack for throwing 7 or 8 innings when the bullpen desperately needs a rest. I hope he pitches forever, even though I know he won’t. Sigh. Grade: B-

Clay Buchholz: He’s not as good as his ERA would suggest, and I’m definitely annoyed that the Red Sox never traded him when he had a lot of hype, but he’s been a solid arm this season. (He’s actually been our second-best starter, but that’s mostly because Beckett’s been hurt and Lackey’s actually an Angels sleeper agent trying to take us down from the inside.) His xFIP is .8 or so lower than Wake’s, though, so he doesn’t deserve a lower grade. Grade: B-

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon: Has a whole lot of SAVES but has also blown SAVES and if he didn’t have SAVES he wouldn’t be trusted to get SAVES because he’s been a replacement level pitcher this year and should be getting SAVES for some other team but there’s no way we trade him midseason because the stupid fans would revolt if we traded a guy with that many SAVES. Grade: SAVES

Daniel Bard: He has been very good this season. He is literally the only relief pitcher about whom I can say this. His strikeouts are down, but his walks are down at a higher rate, and even if he won’t maintain a .203 BABIP he’s still a very talented young reliever who should be closing games for us sooner rather than later. Grade: A

The rest: Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Scott Atchison, and everyone else. These guys have been interchangeably terrible this year, with any one of them capable of blowing up at any given moment. Assuming that Beckett, Martinez and Pedroia are back and contributing by the deadline (or around there), the bullpen is by far the biggest need on the team. Of course, there’s no way we trade any of our can’t miss prospects for bullpen help, so here’s to the hope that Cleveland dumps Kerry Wood’s salary on us or something. Grade: F

Summary: The offense has been incredible, particularly considering the injuries that they’ve suffered. The pitching, particularly the back of the rotation and the bullpen, has been miserable. We need to get healthy, and we need to get a reliever in order to maintain the level of competitiveness that we’ve had to this point. In a perfect world we’d also sell Matsuzaka for some magic beans and leave Wake in the rotation forever, but that’s probably not happening.

Team Grade: B+

Clay Buchholz: Not an All-Star.

For the third straight year, a Red Sox player has been named to an All-Star team under less than ideal circumstances. In 2008, when he looked to be done, the players elected Jason Varitek for reasons only they knew. Last year, Tim Wakefield was named to the team, mostly on the strength of his win total. As I wrote at the time, Wake really didn’t deserve the honor, although I will admit that it was nice to see him get it. This year, another Red Sox player has received an award that he really shouldn’t have: Clay Buchholz.

On the surface, Buchholz has certainly seemed impressive; he carries a 10-4 record and a nifty 2.45 ERA, tied with Cliff Lee (and we all know how good HE is) for second in the American League among qualified pitchers. It seems as if Buchholz has finally put it together, after years of excelling in the minor leagues and then failing to live up to that promise in the majors.

Not so much.

Buchholz has pitched 92 innings this year, exactly the same number as he did in the majors in 2009. Just for shits and giggles, let’s compare the two seasons:

2009
6.65 K/9
3.52 BB/9
1.88 GB/FB
4.09 xFIP

2010
6.26 K/9
3.72 BB/9
1.65 GB/FB
4.28 xFIP

In all the ways that a pitcher can really control what happens, Clay Buchholz has been just as good, if not a little worse, than he was last year. The difference is in his home run rate. Last season, 15.7% of the fly balls that Buchholz allowed went for home runs, and he posted a 4.21 ERA. This year, however, just 3.6% of the fly balls Buchholz has allowed have left the yard, and as a result he has the 2.45 ERA and the all-important ten wins that have earned him a spot on the American League roster.

What’s even more irritating about Clay getting this undue recognition is that it will seemingly justify the Red Sox’ general approach of hanging onto their prospects, even when there are obvious holes on the roster and the prospects are at a much higher perceived than actual value. By hanging onto Buchholz instead of trading him for any of the players to which he’s been linked, and then seeing him named to an All-Star team, Red Sox fans may cling to “high-upside” talents like Casey Kelly or Lars Anderson, when in reality these players will likely never amount to much of anything and would better serve the Red Sox by going somewhere else before they inevitably implode.

Fortunately for American League fans who would like to see their team get home field in the World Series, Clay won’t be bringing his okay-but-not-greatness to the All-Star Game to actually pitch. (Unfortunately for the Red Sox, he’s been our second-best starting pitcher this season, beating out Tim Wakefield and two guys making about 150 times more money than him.) Maybe the player who gets named to take his place will actually deserve the honor.

Dear Dustin: Take your time. Please.

I know I just said that losing Dustin Pedroia hurts a lot. And I also know that I just proposed a radical shift in the infield defense just to avoid having Bill Hall or Eric Patterson play a single game. (Both of them are in the lineup tonight, with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound, against Matt Garza and the Rays. Yuck.) But this is not a good sign. Less than a week after breaking his foot, Pedroia was on his knees, taking grounders at second base.

I won’t pretend to know a single thing about Dustin Pedroia, but everything I’ve seen and everything I’ve read about him tells me that he’s going to work as hard as he can to get back into playing condition as soon as possible. And that’s wonderful. But what I don’t want, and what the Red Sox need to be careful to avoid, is for him to come back too soon, and either reinjure himself or just play poorly. This is something that’s very hard to do; players almost never ask to be taken out of games, and those who do let the team know when they’re not feeling 100% often get unfairly labeled as soft. (See also: Drew, Nancy.)

For his own sake, the sake of the 2010 Red Sox season, and the sake of the Red Sox going forward beyond this year, I hope that Dustin Pedroia takes his time, and doesn’t come back until he’s absolutely ready. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t.

Another One Bites the Dust(in)

Josh Beckett and Jacoby Ellsbury are still on the DL. Mike Cameron just came back. Daisuke Matsuzaka, frustrating as he is, has bounced back and forth. Mike Lowell, worthless as he is, just went on as well. JD Drew’s missed much of the last week, but looks like he’ll avoid a trip. Still, the last thing the Red Sox needed was another injury.

Then Dustin Pedroia got hurt.

There’s no way to sugarcoat it – this hurts. A lot. He’s been one of our three best players this year (along with Kevin Youkilis and The Incredible Adrian Beltre), and saying that he’s not going to be easy to replace is a bigger understatement than “Stephen Strasburg is a good pitcher.” Still, we’ve got to move forward, and it seems like the short-term response is to stick Bill Hall in at second base and hope that he can handle it.

Hall’s been a bit better than expected this season, posting a .226/.329/.395 line, but those numbers are hardly what you’d want from a guy who’s replacing one of the best hitters we’ve had in the lineup. The recently acquired Eric Patterson is really no better; he has a .255 OBP in 111 PA with the A’s this year, and even his more promising minor league numbers paint him as a roughly replacement-level player.

For the “long” term (as in, the entire duration of Pedroia’s DL time), I’m hopeful that the Sox will aggressively pursue Kelly Johnson or Dan Uggla to man second and then help out in the outfield when Pedroia comes back. For the next couple of weeks, though, I’d love to see them try something less conventional than just sticking a bad player at the bottom of the order and hoping everything works out okay.

Rather than having Hall or Patterson bat ninth, make outs and play poor defense, why don’t the Sox try Beltre at second? It’s true that moving him from the hot corner would greatly diminish the value of his strong arm, but his range is good enough that I think he’d be fine at second. Kevin Youkilis could move over to third, another defensive downgrade but not one that I think is terribly damaging. Victor Martinez could come out from behind the plate to play first, and Jason Varitek (who has pulled a .928 OPS out of his ass in limited action this year) could catch.

It’s a lot of movement, and it definitely weakens us defensively in two positions. However, I think that, until an acceptable longterm solution is found, shuffling the deck would get us better results than asking Bill Hall or Eric Patterson to be anything other than terrible.

Help me.

I remember, when I was very young, watching soccer late at night on one of the Spanish channels (“WUNI, Woo-ster Boss-tone!”). I mostly watched because I liked hearing the announcers shout, “Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo[...]oooooooooooool!” I knew about as much about the game then as I do now.

Being unemployed and having nothing better to do, I’ve been watching a lot of the World Cup. I’ve found myself fascinated by games involving countries to which I have no connection, and downright riveted when watching the US. I think I know a little bit more now than I did going in, but I’m still about 99.8% clueless.

So, to those of you out there who do know something about the game, please, help me. I don’t want soccer to be something that I only watch every four years and then forget about. With tons of sports channels and a DVR at my disposal, I can probably catch anything that comes up. Hopefully, with a little luck and a lot of watching, I can figure out just exactly what’s going on.