Claim Carlos?

Carlos Beltran has had a fantastic career. After debuting with the Royals in 1998, he was traded to the Astros in 2004. There, he had one of the best postseasons in memory, putting up an OPS over 1.500 including hitting eight home runs in twelve games (he also stole six bases without being caught). That performance, as well as his sterling defensive reputation, earned him a seven-year, $119 million contract from the Mets in the 04-05 offseason.

It didn’t start off well for Carlos in New York; he put up just a .744 OPS in his first season in Queens. Since then, he’s gotten back to being one of the best hitters in the Metropolitans’ lineup, putting up a .286/.379/.531 line from 2006 through 2009. However, since returning from a series of knee injuries in 2010, his line stands at a meager .195/.300/.312 in 22 games. What’s more, the former defensive wizard is showing signs that he may have lost a step or two; after having a combined UZR of 25.9 from 2006 through 2008, Beltran rated at -3.4 in 2009, and is already at -2.3 this season. At that rate, over 150 games, Beltran would cost his team 48.4 runs; in other words, he’d have to hit like Miguel Cabrera has this year just to be a replacement-level player.

Given his disappointing offensive numbers since his return, his apparent decline on defense and the fact that he’s owed more than $5 million this year and $18.5 million for 2011, it’s not terribly surprising that this piece appeared in the New York Times. David Waldstein writes that the Mets would probably let Beltran go for nothing if a team was to claim him off waivers, letting Angel Pagan slot in as the new Mets’ center fielder. If the Mets do place Beltran on waivers (which they probably will cause damn near everybody gets put on waivers), and it’s true that they’d let him go for nothing just to dump his salary, then I hope the Red Sox put in a claim on him.

There’s no denying it: Beltran’s batting line in 2010 is ugly. However, I don’t think there’s any chance that it represents his true talent level. His batted ball profile is largely the same as it was in 2008 and 2009; he’s traded a few line drives and ground balls for fly balls, but it could very easily be random fluctuation. Despite hitting largely the same types of ball, his BABIP has fallen from .297 in 2008 and .352 last year to .222 in 90 2010 plate appearances. In addition, the extra fly balls that he’s hit aren’t leaving the yard at the rate that they did in the past; just 3.8% of Beltran’s outfield flies have gone for a home run, compared to 15.7% in 2008 and 10.8% in 2009.

To my eye, it’s much more likely that Beltran’s hitting woes aren’t because of his injury or because he looks “lost,” as Waldstein puts it. I think it’s just that he’s been unlucky in the small sample of at-bats he’s gotten since he came off the disabled list. As for his defense, UZR in such samples is essentially meaningless, but even if it’s true that he can’t really handle center field anymore, the Red Sox are playing Ryan Kalish in left right now. Kalish has a nice little .345/.375/.483 line, but that comes with a .409 BABIP. Given that he had an .832 OPS at AAA this year, I think I’ll be forgiven for not believing that he can maintain an .858 mark in the majors.

As for next season, the first answer is “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.” Beyond that, I think it’s likely that the Red Sox will be looking to move one of their outfielders this winter, Beltran or no Beltran. Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen out of favor for reasons somehow stupider than the reasons that he was in favor in the first place, while Mike Cameron has been hampered by abdominal injuries all season long and at 38 years old in 2011 may not be capable of a role beyond that of a righthanded bench bat or perhaps a right field platoon with JD Drew.

The bottom line is this: If the Red Sox still think they have a chance to make the postseason this year, or they don’t want to risk missing out on Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth this winter, Carlos Beltran provides an interesting option. Is he overpaid? Probably. But the Red Sox are a team that can afford to overpay, and getting him for nothing would certainly be more palatable than trading CAN’T MISS PROSPECTS for someone else.

If Carlos Beltran’s on waivers, I want the Red Sox to claim him.

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