It’s been a quiet month since the trading deadline here. Largely, that’s because the Red Sox’ ship has continued to slowly sink due to injuries and the problems that were blindly obvious at the start of the season yet never, ever got fixed. As the playoffs became less and less of a possibility, my enthusiasm for pointing out why that was happening waned. The Red Sox now sit ten games out of the AL East and seven and a half out of the Wild Card, so the only real drama left for them this year is whether or not management will decide to continue the ridiculous “sellout streak.”
I’ll be back with another “How to fix the Red Sox” post (because my last one resulted in such a good season) after the misery is officially over, but in the meantime: Football! Labor Day is upon us, and with the season opening just a scant three days from now, it’s time for me to lay out my predictions for the 2010 NFL season, and in the process prove how little I actually know about teams that are not my own.
AFC East
Patriots
Jets (WC)
Dolphins
Bills
Losing Ty Warren for the season hurts what was already a troubling defense, but I think that Brandon Spikes will serve as a wonderful complement to Jerod Mayo and in the end there will be just enough talent there for the offense to carry the way. Brady’s got a few new toys to play with this year (tight ends in particular), and the concept of a healthy Welker and a more effective Edelman on the field at the same time is, frankly, drool-worthy. As for the rest of the division, I think the Jets will take a small step back this season, while the Dolphins will struggle to find an identity in a league that has largely figured out how to at least contain the Wildcat. The Bills, as always, are the Bills.
AFC NORTH
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
If Roethlisberger was going to be active for the entire season, I’d probably give the division to Pittsburgh here. As it is, though, they’re going to be playing four games without him, and then they’ll have to deal with the inevitable rust that comes from picking up a season in midstream. Realistically, they won’t really get into the swing of things until after Week 6, at which point they could well be 2-4, or worse. Thus, I’ll throw my prediction to the Ravens, though I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bengals take it; for some reason, I’m fully on board with the “TOcho” experiment. I think it’s gonna work. (Please don’t bring this quote back up if they wind up killing each other.)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis
Tennessee (WC)
Jacksonville
Houston
Top to bottom, the AFC South is the toughest division in the conference. The Colts are the Colts, and that’s all that I really need to say about them. The Titans are much better than the way they started last season, and neither Jacksonville nor Houston is by any means a bad team. That said, they both have the misfortune of being trapped behind two better teams–even if Vince Young will always be a better QB in Madden than he is in real life.
AFC WEST
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City
It definitely wouldn’t shock me to see the Raiders finish second, here; just adding a semi-competent QB in Jason Campbell makes them much more dangerous than they’ve been the past few years. On the other hand, just on the off chance that there actually is a season next year, I want the Patriots to get as much as they can out of the trade of Richard Seymour. I don’t see the Raiders, or anyone else in this division, having a real chance to knock off the Chargers, though; the Broncos’ hot start last year was basically a mirage, and the Chiefs are just plain not that good, at anything.
NFC EAST
Dallas
New York (WC)
Washington
Philadelphia
If the Eagles had retained McNabb, I would have had them in third and taking the second Wild Card spot. I don’t at all buy into the logic that he was the one holding them back, and I think the Philly fans and media will figure that out pretty quickly. Even with Donovan, though, the Skins won’t be good enough to get past the Cowboys or Giants and into the NFC playoff picture.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay
Minnesota (WC)
Chicago
Detroit
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Brett Favre is going to have a good start to the regular season, wear down toward the end, then self-destruct in the playoffs while Joe Buck and Troy Aikman talk about how brave and selfless he is. The only good thing to come of the lockout will be that, for at least a year, we’ll be spared from all of his stupid drama. While the order doesn’t really look that much different from the recent status quo in the North, I think this division will surprise people with how good it is; Detroit, especially, is going to take a big leap forward. (I can already tell that I’m going to regret that come January.)
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans
Atlanta
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Possibly more than any other, this is a division of quarterbacks: Drew Brees is one of the best in the game, Matt Ryan is good but not great, Matt Moore is okay I guess and Josh Freeman is cover-your-eyes awful. Not coincidentally, I think the Saints will have a great year, the Falcons will be good but ultimately miss the playoffs, the Panthers will be inconsistent and ultimately irrelevant, and the Buccaneers will be out of it by Week 10.
NFC WEST
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis
Arizona
Continuing our theme of quarterback talk, this division is chock full of guys that I like even though most people don’t–or at least it was until the Cardinals dumped Matt Leinart. I don’t particularly know why I liked him (or why I like Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck or Sam Bradford, for that matter), but I did, and while going from Kurt Warner to Leinart was going to be a big dropoff, I think going from Warner to Derek Anderson is that much worse. The wheels are going to come off in Arizona this season, in a big way.
PLAYOFFS
AFC Championship: Chargers over Colts
NFC Championship: Packers over Saints
Super Bowl: Packers over Chargers
So, there you have it. I’m on the record now with my NFL picks, and because I’ve gone on the record there is absolutely no chance that this actually happens. If it does, though, you can be sure that I’ll be here to gloat. In the meantime, I figure I’ll check in at least every week with something football-related, be it a rundown of the week’s action or an analysis of the Patriots games or something else entirely.
